The USDCHF broke above the 100 day MA today. If the price can close above this level today (0.9685), this will be the first close above the MA level since June 25th 2010. That is signficant and the price action has reacted accordingly today with prices moving steadily higher.
Of coures, breaks higher (or lower) still have levels to get through in order to keep the bullish momentum in tact. The next target level for the USDCHF is the 0.9773 level. This is the 61.8% of the December 2010 high to the low reached at the end of December. Above that is the high from December at the 0.9783 level. A break of these levels should lead to further bullish momentum for the pair.
Looking longer term, the pair has been depressed for some time and therefore has some room to run. Catalyst include a stronger global/US economy that takes the pressure off the safe haven flows into the CHF. This ultimately could lead to more significant upside potential. The 0.9807 level is another upside level to get through (see daily chart below) and 0.9964 (50% of the move down from the Aug 2010 high) is another target. The 200 day MA is all the way up at the 1.0200 level.
Intraday, if the price can stay above the 0.9739 to 0.9747 level, the pair could sustain the upside momentum from an intraday perspective (38.2% of the last surge higher). Please see the chart below.
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